Air transport: IATA predicts passenger numbers to double in 20 years

According to forecasts by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), airlines expect to carry twice as many passengers over the next twenty years, with growth mainly driven by Asia.

This year, IATA anticipates global air traffic of almost 5 billion passengers, up sharply from the 4.3 billion recorded in 2023. This figure would then surpass the pre-pandemic record of 4.54 billion passengers reached in 2019. In the longer term, IATA forecasts that the number of air passengers will double from 2023, reaching 8.6 billion by 2043, with an average annual growth rate of 3.6%. This growth dynamic will be particularly strong in “emerging markets such as Asia-Pacific and the Middle East”.

The Asia-Pacific region is set to see the biggest increase in passenger flows, with an estimated 2 billion air journeys. The United States and Europe follow, with 659 million and 656 million passengers respectively.

IATA's projections, unveiled ahead of the UK's Farnborough Airshow, are in line with those of Airbus. The aircraft manufacturer predicts that the world fleet of commercial aircraft will double by 2043, reaching 48,230 aircraft, mainly thanks to the rise of the middle classes in Asia. IATA's forecast, although average, indicates a global air traffic growth range of between 2.6% and 4.6%. The major uncertainty remains the robustness of global economic growth, stresses IATA.