Pilot shortage expected to intensify over the next decade

Airlines are expected to face a shortage of pilots at least until 2032. Several studies conducted by Oliver Wyman predict a shortage of 60 to 68,000 pilots over the next ten years. In the most extreme scenarios, the pilot shortage could reach 50,000 by 2025.

According to several studies conducted by Geoff Murray of Oliver Wyman, North American airlines will need 12,000 pilots by 2023. The shortage could intensify, reaching 34,000 pilots by 2025.

According to the study, "the impact of layoffs, retirements and resignations will create real difficulties for even some of the largest airlines.

The hiring recovery in the U.S. is failing to make up for the pilot shortage. According to figures from Future and Active Pilot Advisors (FAPA), the 12 largest airlines have grown from 5,426 pilots in 2021 to 13,600 by the end of 2022.

Jefferies estimates a shortage of 8,000 pilots in the U.S. by 2022. According to the same study, this shortage will reach 18,000 pilots in the United States by 2025 and 23,000 by 2030. The cause is the age pyramid with about 16% of pilots between 60 and 64 years old, and 17% between 55 and 59 years old. According to FAA data, the average age of the 166,738 active U.S. airline pilots is 50 for men and 45 for women.

In the U.S., the increase in the number of airline pilot licenses is not keeping pace with the growing demand for qualified pilots. According to FAA figures, 29,589 commercial pilot licenses (CPL) were issued in 2022 and 34,883 airline transport pilot licenses. In 2019, 28,249 CPLs were issued and 27,452 airline transport pilot licenses.

According to Geoff Muray's study, with demand for air travel growing, Asia Pacific is expected to experience a shortage of 3,000 pilots by 2023 and 18,000 by 2032.

In Europe, the shortage is expected to reach 1,000 pilots in the short term and then climb to 19,000 over the next 10 years.

Globally, the shortage could reach 68,000 pilots by 2032 and, in the most pessimistic scenarios, the 50,000 mark could be reached as early as 2025.

Source : https://www.aerobuzz.fr/breves-jobs/la-penurie-de-pilotes-devrait-sintensifier-sur-la-prochaine-decennie/